77 DAYS TO DIEENCYCLOPEDIAPC 3.2.0 (b10)
Browse the encyclopedia

Try: water, woda, how to cure infection, motocykl

Loot chance: what repeated attempts really mean

A possible item source does not guarantee a successful roll. Compare relevant containers, expedition costs and alternative acquisition routes.

Description

Container type and gameplay conditions affect the contents. Related items may appear in different places, while stronger variants need not be available in every situation. A possible source helps choose a search direction; it does not specify the odds of an individual roll.

A possible source is not a guarantee

Knowing an item can appear in a crate helps choose where to search. It does not promise the outcome of every attempt. Similar-looking containers need not follow identical rules either.

First confirm the intended item and variant. More attempts in a pool that lacks the selected variant do not improve the chance of finding it there.

Past failures do not create a debt

In an independent model with a constant 10% chance, nine failures do not guarantee success on attempt ten. The probability of at least one success across ten attempts is about 65.1%. This is a mathematical example, not a particular game item's drop rate.

Real expeditions may have different conditions, so do not blindly pool results across containers, biomes and progression stages. A different source or purchase may be better than repeating the same plan.

What to do

  1. Check the exact item and variant you need. Choose containers listed as possible sources.
  2. Plan several opportunities to search suitable containers while accounting for safety and the return trip.
  3. Do not treat repeated failures as a promise of success next time. Change the route if it costs too much time and supplies.
  4. Compare continued looting with buying or crafting the item. More loot does not always mean faster progress.

Worked example

For an illustrative fixed, independent 10% chance, 10 attempts give about 65.1% chance of at least one success, not 100%. The probability of ten failures is about 34.9%. This example does not assign a 10% drop rate to any item in the game.

Common mistake

Assuming a particular number of failed attempts must end in a guaranteed item.